Publications

PublicationAuthorsJournalData of publicationDOIMOOD partner(s)Key words
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020G. Pullano, F. Pinotti, E. Valdano, P.Y. Boëlle, C. Poletto, V. ColizzaEurosurveillance2020https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057INSERM
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.Marius Gilbert, Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Eric D’Ortenzio, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Serge Paul Eholie, Mathias Altmann, Bernardo Gutierrez, Moritz U G Kraemer*, Vittoria Colizza,The Lancet2020https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6INSERM/ULB/UOXF
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., … & Viboud, C.Science2020https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757FEM/FBK
Monitoring online media reports for the early detection of unknown diseases: insights from a retrospective study of COVID-19 emergence.Sarah Valentin, Alizé Mercier, Renaud Lancelot, Mathieu Roche, Elena ArsevskaTransbound Emerg Diseases2020https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13738CIRADCOVID‐19 , emerging disease, epidemic intelligence, one Health, online news, PADI‐web
Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.N. W. Ruktanonchai, J. R. Floyd, S. Lai, C. W. Ruktanonchai, A. Sadilek, P. Rente-Lourenco, X. Ben, A. Carioli, J. Gwinn, J. E. Steele, O. Prosper, A. Schneider, A. Oplinger, P. Eastham, A. J. TatemScience2020https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096SOTON
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China.Shengjie Lai, Nick W Ruktanonchai, Liangcai Zhou, Olivia Prosper, Wei Luo, Jessica R Floyd, Amy Wesolowski, Mauricio Santillana, Chi Zhang, Xiangjun Du, Hongjie Yu, Andrew J TatemNature2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2293-xSOTON
Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.Lai S, Johansson MA, Yin W, Wardrop NA, van Panhuis WG, Wesolowski A, et al.PLoSNegl Trop Dishttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006743
SOTON/UOXF
Evaluating the effect of demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, and risk aversion on mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic in France under lockdown: a population-based study.Giulia Pullano, Eugenio Valdano, Nicola Scarpa, Stefania Rubrich, Vittoria ColizzaLancet Digit Health2020https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30243-0INSERM
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.Darlan S. Candido Ingra M. Claro, Jaqueline G. de Jesus, William M. Souza, Filipe R. R. Moreira et alSciencehttps://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd2161ULB
Influence of temperature on the life-cycle dynamics of Aedes albopictus population established at temperate latitudes: a laboratory experiment. 2020, 11, 0808Giovanni Marini, Mattia Manica, Daniele Arnoldi, Enrico Inama, Roberto Rosà and Annapaola RizzoliInsects2020https://doi.org/10.3390/insects11110808FEM/FBKmosquito bionomics; mosquito dynamics; invasive species
Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics.Benjamin Rader, Samuel V Scarpino, Anjalika Nande, Alison L Hill , Ben Adlam, Robert C Reiner, David M Pigott, Bernardo Gutierrez, Alexander E Zarebski, Munik Shrestha, John S Brownstein, Marcia C Castro, Christopher Dye, Huaiyu Tian, Oliver G Pybus, Moritz U G KraemerNature Medicine2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1104-0OXFORD
Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in EuropeGiovanni Marinia, Mattia Manica, Luca Delucchia, Andrea Pugliesed, Roberto RosàActa Tropica2021https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105796FEM/FBK
Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework.Simon Dellicour, Sebastian Lequime, Bram Vrancken, Mandev S. Gill, Paul Bastide, Karthik Gangavarapu, Nathaniel L. Matteson, Yi Tan, Louis du Plessis, Alexander A. Fisher, Martha I. Nelson, Marius Gilbert, Marc A. Suchard, Kristian G. Andersen, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Oliver G. Pybus & Philippe LemeyNature communications2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19122-zULB/KU LEUVEN
Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic life cycleOliver N., Lepri b,. Sterly H., Lambiotte R., Delataille S., De Nadai D., Letouzé E., Salah A.A., Benjamins R., Cattuto C., Colizza V., de Cordes N., Fraiberger S.P., Koebe T., Lehmann S., Murillo J., Pentland A., Pham P.N., Pivetta F., Saramäki J., Scarpino S.V., Tizzoni M., Verhulst S. and Vinck P.Science Advances2020https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0764
Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.Zhang J., Litvinova M., Liang Y., Wang Y., Wang W., Zhao S., Wu Q., Merler S., Viboud C., Vespignani A., Ajelli M.,, Yu H.Science2020https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb8001
The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in ItalyAndrea Piccioli; Maria Fenicia Vescio; Patrizio Pezzotti; Antonino Bella; Stefano Merler; Alberto Mateo Urdiales; Martina Del Manso; Stefano Boros; Giovanni Rezza; Giorgio Guzzetta; Valentina Marziano; Piero Poletti; Silvio Brusaferro; Filippo Trentini; Xanthi D. Andrianou; Stefania Bellino; Massimo Fabiani; Flavia Riccardo; Marco AjelliEmerging Infectious Diseases2021https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2701.202114FEM/FBKCOVID-19; Italy; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; lockdown; reproduction number; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; transmissibility; viruses; zoonoses.
Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study.Zhang J., Litvinova M., Wang W., Wang Y., Deng X., Chen X., Li M., Zheng W., Yi L., Chen X, Wu Q., Liang Y., Wang X., Yang J., Sun K., Longini Jr I.M., Halloran ME., Wu P., Cowling B.J., Merler S., Viboud C., Vespignani A., Ajelli M., Yu H.The Lancet Infect Diseases2020https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30230-9FEM/FBK
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Marco Ajelli, Filippo Trentini, Valentina Marziano, Danilo Cereda, Marcello Tirani, Giulio Diurno, Annalisa Bodina, Antonio Barone, Lucia Crottogini, Maria Gramegna, Alessia Melegaro, Stefano MerlerEurosurveillance2020https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293FEM/FBK
Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information.Xu B., Gutierrez B., Mekaru S., Sewalk K., Goodwin L., Loskill A., Cohn E.L., Hswen T., Hill S.C., Cobo M.M., Zarebski A.E., Li S., Wu C-H., Hulland E., Morgan J.D., Wang L., O’BrienK., Scarpino S.V., Brownstein J.S., Pybus O.G., Pigott D.M., Kraemer M.U.G.Sci Data2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0448-0
Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling studyFrancesco Pinotti, Laura Di Domenico, Ernesto Ortega, Marco Mancastroppa, Giulia Pullano, Eugenio Valdano, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Chiara Poletto, Vittoria ColizzaPLOS Medicine2020https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003193

INSERM
Global Trends in Antimicrobial Use in Food Animals from 2017 to 2030Katie Tiseo, Laura Huber, Marius Gilbert, Timothy P. Robinson, Thomas P. Van Boeckel.Antibiotics2020https://doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics9120918ETHantibiotics; livestock; animal products; sales; exports
Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysisGiorgio Guzzetta, Francesco Vairo, Alessia Mammone, Simone Lanini, Piero Poletti, Mattia Manica, Roberto Rosa, Beniamino Caputo, Angelo Solimini, Alessandra Della Torre, Paola Scognamiglio, Alimuddin Zumla, Giuseppe Ippolito & Stefano MerlerBMC Medicine220https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01674-yFEMChikungunya, Transmission chain, Spatiotemporal spread, Transmission distance
Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from
COVID-19 lockdown		Valentina Marzianoa, Giorgio Guzzettaa, Bruna Maria Rondinone, Fabio Boccuni, Flavia Riccardoc, Antonino Bellac, Piero Polettia, Filippo Trentinia, Patrizio Pezzottic, Silvio Brusaferroc, Giovanni Rezzac,
Sergio Iavicolib, Marco Ajellid and Stefano Merler		Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019617118
Reducing contacts to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the second pandemic wave in Brussels, Belgium, August to November 2020Brecht Ingelbeen, Laurène Peckeu, Marie Laga, Ilona Hendrix, Inge Neven, Marianne A. B. van der Sande, Esther van KleefEurosurveillance2021https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.7.2100065
Can a COVID-19 vaccination program guarantee the return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle?Juan Yang, Valentina Marziano, Xiaowei Deng, Giorgio Guzzetta, Juanjuan Zhang, Filippo Trentini, Jun Cai, Piero Poletti, Wen Zheng, Wei Wang, Qianhui Wu, Zeyao Zhao, Kaige Dong, Guangjie Zhong, Cécile Viboud, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie YuMedRxiv preprint2021https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.03.21251108
Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United StatesMark Zeller, Karthik Gangavarapu, Catelyn Anderson, Allison R. Smither, John A. Vanchiere, Rebecca Rose, Daniel J. Snyder, Gytis Dudas, Alexander Watts, Nathaniel L. Matteson, Refugio Robles-Sikisaka, Maximilian Marshall, Amy K. Feehan, Gilberto Sabino-Santos Jr, Antoinette R. Bell-Kareem, Laura D. Hughes, Manar Alkuzweny, Patricia Snarski, Julia Garcia-Diaz, Rona S. Scott, Lilia I. Melnik, Raphaëlle Klitting, Michelle McGraw, Pedro Belda-Ferre, Peter DeHoff, Shashank Sathe, Clarisse Marotz, Nathan Grubaugh, David J. Nolan, Arnaud C. Drouin, Kaylynn J. Genemaras, Karissa Chao, Sarah Topol, Emily Spencer, Laura Nicholson, Stefan Aigner, Gene W. Yeo, Lauge Farnaes, Charlotte A. Hobbs, Louise C. Laurent, Rob Knight, Emma B. Hodcroft, Kamran Khan, Dahlene N. Fusco, Vaughn S. Cooper, Phillipe Lemey, Lauren Gardner, Susanna L. Lamers, Jeremy P. Kamil, Robert F. Garry, Marc A. Suchard, Kristian G. AndersenMedRxiv preprint2021https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251235
Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese citiesBo Huang, Jionghua Wang, Jixuan Cai, Shiqi Yao, Paul Kay Sheung Chan, Tony Hong-wing Tam, Ying-Yi Hong, Corrine W. Ruktanonchai, Alessandra Carioli, Jessica R. Floyd, Nick W. Ruktanonchai, Weizhong Yang, Zhongjie Li, Andrew J. Tatem & Shengjie LaiNat Hum Behav2021https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2
Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious diseaseRachel J. Oidtman, Elisa Omodei, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Erica Cruz-Rivera, Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón, Myriam Patricia Cifuentes, Luz Emilse Rincon, Viviana Cañon, Pedro de Alarcon, Guido España, View ORCID ProfileJohn H. Huber, Sarah C. Hill, Christopher M. Barker, Michael A. Johansson, Carrie A. Manore, Robert C. Reiner Jr., Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Enrique Frias-Martinez, Manuel García-Herranz, Alex PerkinsMedRxiv preprint2021https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252363
The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the N501Y lineages coincides with a major global shift in the SARS-CoV-2 selective landscapeDarren P Martin, Steven Weaver, Houryiah Tegally, Emmanuel James San, Stephen D Shank, Eduan Wilkinson, Jennifer Giandhari, Sureshnee Naidoo, Yeshnee Pillay, Lavanya Singh, Richard J Lessells, NGS-SA, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK), Ravindra K Gupta, Joel O Wertheim, Anton Nekturenko, Ben Murrell, Gordon W Harkins, Philippe Lemey, Oscar A MacLean, David L Robertson, Tulio de Oliveira, Sergei L Kosakovsky PondMedRxiv preprint2021https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252268
Genomics and epidemiology of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, BrazilNuno R. Faria, Thomas A. Mellan, Charles Whittaker, et al.MedRxiv preprint2021https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.26.21252554
Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UKLOUIS DU PLESSIS, JOHN T. MCCRONE, ALEXANDER E. ZAREBSKI, VERITY HILL, CHRISTOPHER RUIS, BERNARDO GUTIERREZ, JAYNA RAGHWANI, JORDAN ASHWORTH, RACHEL COLQUHOUN, THOMAS R. CONNOR, NUNO R. FARIA, BEN JACKSON, NICHOLAS J. LOMAN, ÁINE O’TOOLE, SAMUEL M. NICHOLLS, KRIS V. PARAG, EMILY SCHER, TETYANA I. VASYLYEVA, ERIK M. VOLZ, ALEXANDER WATTS, ISAAC I. BOGOCH, KAMRAN KHAN, COVID-19 GENOMICS UK (COG-UK) CONSORTIUM, DAVID M. AANENSEN, MORITZ U. G. KRAEMER, ANDREW RAMBAUT, OLIVER G. PYBUSScience2021https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf2946
Accommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2Philippe Lemey, Samuel L. Hong, Verity Hill, Guy Baele, Chiara Poletto, Vittoria Colizza, Áine O’Toole, John T. McCrone, Kristian G. Andersen, Michael Worobey, Martha I. Nelson, Andrew Rambaut & Marc A. SuchardNature Communications2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18877-9INSERMCOVID-19; Genomics; phylogenetics;
icumonitoring.ch: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in SwitzerlandCheng Zhao, Burcu Tepekule, Nicola G Criscuolo, Pedro D Wendel Garcia, Matthias P Hilty, Risc-Icu Consortium Investigators In Switzerland 4, Thierry Fumeaux, Thomas Van BoeckelSwiss Medical Weekly2020https://doi.org/10.4414/smw.2020.20277ETHCOVID-19; Intensive Care Units; SEIR model; Spatial Epidemiology; Shinyapps;
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US Michael Worobey, Jonathan Pekar, Brendan B. Larsen, Martha I. Nelson, Verity Hill, Jeffrey B. Joy, Andrew Rambaut, Marc A. Suchard, Joel O. Wertheim, Philippe LemeyScience2020https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc8169COVID-19: Europe; EU;
Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France Laura Di Domenico, Giulia Pullano, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Vittoria ColizzaNature Communications2021https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21249-6INSERM
Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europe Philippe Lemey, Nick Ruktanonchai, Samuel L. Hong, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto, Frederik Van den Broeck, Mandev S. Gill, Xiang Ji, Anthony Levasseur, Bas B. Oude Munnink, Marion Koopmans, Adam Sadilek, Shengjie Lai, Andrew J. Tatem, Guy Baele, Marc A. Suchard & Simon DellicourNature2021https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2INSERM
Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control Giulia Pullano, Laura Di Domenico, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Eugenio Valdano, Clément Turbelin, Marion Debin, Caroline Guerrisi, Charly Kengne-Kuetche, Cécile Souty, Thomas Hanslik, Thierry Blanchon, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Julie Figoni, Sophie Vaux, Christine Campèse, Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin & Vittoria ColizzaNature2020https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03095-6INSERM
Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France Laura Di Domenico, Chiara E Sabbatini, Giulia Pullano, Daniel Lévy-Bruhl , Vittoria ColizzaEurosurveillance2021France https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272INSERM
Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection Jesús A. Moreno López, Beatriz Arregui García, Piotr Bentkowski, Livio Bioglio, Francesco Pinotti, Pierre-Yves Boëlle1, Alain Barrat, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara PolettoScience Advances2021https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd8750INSERM
Highlighting socio-economic constraints on mobility reductions during COVID-19 restrictions in France can inform effective and equitable pandemic response Eugenio Valdano, Jonggul Lee, Shweta Bansal, Stefania Rubrichi, Vittoria ColizzaJournal of Travel Medicine2021https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taab045INSERM
A review of models applied to the geographic spread of Zika virusSabrina L Li, Jane P Messina, Oliver G Pybus, Moritz U G Kraemer, Lauren GardnerTransactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene2021Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and HygieneDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford,arbovirus, mobility, surveillance, vector-borne, ZIKV