MOOD publications

@article{,

title = {Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Ile-de-France and possible exit strategies},

author = {Laura Di Domenico and Chiara E. Sabbatini and Giulia Pullano and Daniel Lévy-Bruhl and Vittoria Colizza},

url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251708v2},

doi = { 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-10},

urldate = {2021-03-10},

journal = {medRxiv},

number = {2},

publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},

abstract = {Facing B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a 2-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalizations to plateau, by decreasing transmission of the historical strain while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalizations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.},

keywords = {COVID-19, epidemiology, Europe, Public Health},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lemey2021untangling,

title = {Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europe},

author = {Philippe Lemey and Nick Ruktanonchai and Samuel L Hong and Vittoria Colizza and Chiara Poletto and Frederik Van den Broeck and Mandev S Gill and Xiang Ji and Anthony Levasseur and Bas B Oude Munnink and others},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {595},

number = {7869},

pages = {713--717},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden.},

keywords = {big data, COVID-19, epidemiology, Europe, measures, mobility},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ruktanonchai2020assessing,

title = {Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe},

author = {Nick Warren Ruktanonchai and JR Floyd and Shengjie Lai and Corrine Warren Ruktanonchai and Adam Sadilek and Pedro Rente-Lourenco and Xue Ben and Alessandra Carioli and Joshua Gwinn and JE Steele and others},

doi = {10.1126/science.abc5096},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Science},

volume = {369},

number = {6510},

pages = {1465--1470},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide.},

keywords = {COVID-19, Europe, lock-down, measures, transmission},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{:/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057,

title = {Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020},

author = {Giulia Pullano and Francesco Pinotti and Eugenio Valdano and Pierre-Yves Boëlle and Chiara Poletto and Vittoria Colizza},

url = {https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Eurosurveillance},

volume = {25},

number = {4},

abstract = {As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.},

keywords = {airplanes, COVID-19, Europe, mobility},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}