MOOD publications

@article{nokey,

title = {Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe},

author = {Diana Erazo and Luke Grant and Guillaume Ghisbain and Giovanni Marini and Felipe J. Colón-González and William Wint and Annapaola Rizzoli and Wim Van Bortel and Chantal B. F. Vogels and Nathan D. Grubaugh and Matthias Mengel and Katja Frieler and Wim Thiery and Simon Dellicour},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3?utm_source=rct_congratemailt&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=oa_20240208&utm_content=10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3#article-info},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-02-08},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {15},

number = {1196},

abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901–2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.},

keywords = {WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Spatial and temporal dynamics of West Nile virus between Africa and Europe},

author = {Giulia Mencattelli and Marie Henriette Dior Ndione and Andrea Silverj and Moussa Moise Diagne and Valentina Curini and Liana Teodori and Marco Di Domenico and Rassoul Mbaye and Alessandra Leone and Maurilia Marcacci and Alioune Gaye and ElHadji Ndiaye and Diawo Diallo and Massimo Ancora and Barbara Secondini and Valeria Di Lollo and Iolanda Mangone and Andrea Bucciacchio and Andrea Polci and Giovanni Marini and Roberto Rosà and Nicola Segata and Gamou Fall and Cesare Cammà and Federica Monaco and Mawlouth Diallo and Omar Rota-Stabelli and Oumar Faye and Annapaola Rizzoli & Giovanni Savini},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42185-7},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-10-13},

urldate = {2023-10-13},

journal = {Nature Communications},

keywords = {OpenDataSet, WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Understanding West Nile virus transmission: Mathematical modelling to quantify the most critical parameters to predict infection dynamics},

author = {Elisa Fesce and Giovanni Marini and Roberto Rosà and Davide Lelli and Monica Pierangela Cerioli and Mario Chiari and Marco Farioli and Nicola Ferrari},

url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010252},

doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0010252},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-05-01},

urldate = {2023-05-01},

abstract = {Infectious communicable diseases are currently one of the main burdens for human beings and public health. The comprehension of their spread and maintenance is one of the main goals to facilitate their control and eradication, but due to the complexity of their cycles and transmission processes, obtaining this information is often difficult and demanding. The control of vector-borne diseases in particular represents an important and very complex challenge for public health. Mathematical models are suitable tools to investigate disease dynamics and their transmission mechanisms and processes. To build a suitable model that can simulate transmission dynamics, a reliable and precise estimate of parameters for measuring transmission mechanisms is fundamental. We thus propose a sensitivity analysis of four unknown epidemiological parameters (bird recovery rate, mosquito biting rate, avian susceptibility to infection and avian competence to infection) that play a crucial role in driving West Nile virus (WNV) infection to determine which of them have the greatest impact on infection spread. This analysis suggests that the infectious period in birds and mosquito biting rate are the parameters to be prioritised in investigation to increase our ability to model WNV spread.},

keywords = {OpenDataSet, WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy},

author = {Giulia Mencattelli and Andrea Silverj and Federica Iapaolo and Carla Ippoliti and Liana Teodori and Annapia Di Gennaro and Valentina Curini and Luca Candeloro and Annamaria Conte and Andrea Polci and Daniela Morelli and Maria Gabriella Perrotta and Giovanni Marini and Roberto Rosà and Federica Monaco and Nicola Segata and Annapaola Rizzoli and Omar Rota-Stabelli and Giovanni Savini and West Nile Working Group},

url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/1/35},

doi = {10.3390/v15010035},

issn = {1999-4915},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-12-22},

urldate = {2022-12-22},

journal = {Viruses},

volume = {15},

number = {35},

abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.},

keywords = {OpenDataSet, WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{@article{MARINI2022100462,

title = {Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population},

author = {Giovanni Marini and Andrea Pugliese and William Wint and Neil S. Alexander and Annapaola Rizzoli and Roberto Rosà},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771422000945},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100462},

issn = {2352-7714},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-12-01},

urldate = {2022-12-01},

journal = {One Health},

volume = {15},

pages = {100462},

abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is among the most recent emerging mosquito-borne pathogens in Europe where each year hundreds of human cases are recorded. We developed a relatively simple technique to model the WNV force of infection (FOI) in the human population to assess its dependence on environmental and human demographic factors. To this aim, we collated WNV human case-based data reported to the European Surveillance System from 15 European Countries during the period 2010–2021. We modelled the regional WNV FOI for each year through normal distributions and calibrated the constituent parameters, namely average (peak timing), variance and overall intensity, to observed cases. Finally, we investigated through regression models how these parameters are associated to a set of climatic, environmental and human demographic covariates. Our modelling approach shows good agreement between expected and observed epidemiological curves. We found that FOI magnitude is positively associated with spring temperature and larger in more anthropogenic semi-natural areas, while FOI peak timing is negatively related to summer temperature. Unsurprisingly, FOI is estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of elderly people, who are more likely to contract severe infections. Our results confirm that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV transmission in Europe and provide some interesting hints on how human presence and demography might affect WNV burden. This simple yet reliable approach could be easily adopted for early warning and to address epidemiological investigations of other vector-borne diseases, especially where eco-epidemiological data are scarce.},

keywords = {WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {A systematic review of environmental factors related to WNV circulation in European and Mediterranean countries},

author = {Christine Giesen and Zaida Herrador and Beatriz Fernandez-Martinez and Jordi Figuerola and Laura Gangoso and Ana Vazquez and Diana Gómez-Barroso},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771422001100},

doi = {10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100478},

issn = {2352-7714},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-01},

journal = {One Health},

volume = {16},

pages = {100478},

abstract = {Introduction/objective

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most widely distributed flaviviruses worldwide. It is considered an endemic and emerging pathogen in different areas of the Europe and Mediterranean countries (MR). Mosquitoes of the genus Culex spp. are the main vectors, and birds its main vertebrate hosts. It can occasionally infect mammals, including humans. Different environmental factors can influence its distribution and transmission through its effects on vector or host populations. Our objective was to determine environmental factors associated with changes in vector distribution and WNV transmission in Europe and MR.

Material & methods

Systematic peer review of articles published between 2000 and 2020. We selected studies on WNV, and its vectors carried out in Europe and MR. The search included terms referring to climatic and environmental factors.

Results

We included 65 studies, of which 21 (32%) were conducted in Italy. Culex spp. was studied in 26 papers (40%), humans in 19 papers (29%) and host animals (mainly horses) in 16 papers (25%), whereas bird reservoirs were addressed in 5 studies (8%). A significant positive relationship was observed between changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and the epidemiology of WNV, although contrasting results were found among studies. Other factors positively related to WNV dynamics were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI] and expansion of anthropized habitats.

Conclusion

The epidemiology of WNV seems to be related to climatic factors that are changing globally due to ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the complete zoonotic cycle was not analyzed in most papers, making it difficult to determine the independent impact of environment on the different components of the transmission cycle. Given the current expansion and endemicity of WNV in the area, it is important to adopt holistic approaches to understand WNV epidemiology and to improve WNV surveillance and control.},

keywords = {WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {West Nile Virus in Africa: current epidemiological situation and knowledge gaps},

author = {Giulia Mencattelli et al.},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971221011838},

doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.291},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-03-08},

urldate = {2022-03-08},

abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne zoonotic pathogen which represents a continuous source of concern for public health worldwide due to its expansion and invasion into new regions. Its distribution and circulation intensity in African countries is only partially known. The aim of the present study is to provide an updated overview on the current knowledge of WNV epidemiology in Africa, providing available data on incidence in humans and animals, the circulating lineages and clades, other than an updated list of the principal arthropod vectors identified and the availability of vector competence studies.



},

keywords = {WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Epidemiology of West Nile virus in Africa: An underestimated threat},

author = {Giulia Mencattelli and Marie Henriette Dior Ndione and Roberto Rosà and Giovanni Marini and Cheikh Tidiane Diagne and Moise Moussa and Gamou Fall and Ousmane Faye and Mawlouth Diallo and Oumar Faye and Giovanni Savini and Annapaola Rizzoli},

url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010075#abstract0},

doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0010075},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-10},

urldate = {2022-01-10},

journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},

volume = {16},

number = {1},

pages = {1-31},

abstract = {Background West Nile virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has been posing continuous challenges to public health worldwide due to the identification of new lineages and clades and its ability to invade and establish in an increasing number of countries. Its current distribution, genetic variability, ecology, and epidemiological pattern in the African continent are only partially known despite the general consensus on the urgency to obtain such information for quantifying the actual disease burden in Africa other than to predict future threats at global scale.   Methodology and principal findings References were searched in PubMed and Google Scholar electronic databases on January 21, 2020, using selected keywords, without language and date restriction. Additional manual searches of reference list were carried out. Further references have been later added accordingly to experts’ opinion. We included 153 scientific papers published between 1940 and 2021. This review highlights: (i) the co-circulation of WNV-lineages 1, 2, and 8 in the African continent; (ii) the presence of diverse WNV competent vectors in Africa, mainly belonging to the Culex genus; (iii) the lack of vector competence studies for several other mosquito species found naturally infected with WNV in Africa; (iv) the need of more competence studies to be addressed on ticks; (iv) evidence of circulation of WNV among humans, animals and vectors in at least 28 Countries; (v) the lack of knowledge on the epidemiological situation of WNV for 19 Countries and (vii) the importance of carrying out specific serological surveys in order to avoid possible bias on WNV circulation in Africa.   Conclusions This study provides the state of art on WNV investigation carried out in Africa, highlighting several knowledge gaps regarding i) the current WNV distribution and genetic diversity, ii) its ecology and transmission chains including the role of different arthropods and vertebrate species as competent reservoirs, and iii) the real disease burden for humans and animals. This review highlights the needs for further research and coordinated surveillance efforts on WNV in Africa.},

keywords = {OpenDataSet, WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{marini2021spring,

title = {Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in Europe},

author = {Giovanni Marini and Mattia Manica and Luca Delucchi and Andrea Pugliese and Roberto Ros`a},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105796},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Acta Tropica},

volume = {215},

pages = {105796},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {West Nile Virus (WNV) is now endemic in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases every year, with a high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Previous studies have suggested that spring temperature might play a key role at shaping WNV transmission. Specifically, warmer temperatures in April-May might amplify WNV circulation, thus increasing the risk for human transmission later in the year. To test this hypothesis, we collated publicly available data on the number of human infections recorded in Europe between 2011 and 2019. We then applied generalized linear models to quantify the relationship between human cases and spring temperature, considering both average conditions (over years 2003-2010) and deviations from the average for subsequent years (2011-2019). We found a significant positive association both spatial (average conditions) and temporal (deviations). The former indicates that WNV circulation is higher in usually warmer regions while the latter implies a predictive value of spring conditions over the coming season. We also found a positive association with WNV detection during the previous year, which can be interpreted as an indication of the reliability of the surveillance system but also of WNV overwintering capacity. Weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to strengthen in advance ongoing surveillance and prevention strategies.},

keywords = {WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{dellicour2020epidemiological,

title = {Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework},

author = {Simon Dellicour and Sebastian Lequime and Bram Vrancken and Mandev S Gill and Paul Bastide and Karthik Gangavarapu and Nathaniel L Matteson and Yi Tan and Louis Du Plessis and Alexander A Fisher and others},

doi = { https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19122-z},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Nature communications},

volume = {11},

number = {1},

pages = {1--11},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.},

keywords = {OpenDataSet, WNV (West Nile Virus)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}