MOOD publications

@article{,

title = {H-TFIDF: What makes areas specific over time in the massive flow of tweets related to the covid pandemic?},

author = {Rémy Decoupes and Kafando Rodrique and Mathieu Roche and Maguelonne Teisseire },

doi = {10.5194/agile-giss-2-2-2021},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-06-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {AGILE: GIScience Series},

volume = {2},

number = {4},

pages = {1-8},

publisher = {European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control},

abstract = {Data produced by social networks may contain weak signals of possible epidemic outbreaks. In this paper, we focus on Twitter data during the waiting period before the appearance of COVID-19 first cases outside China. Among the huge flow of tweets that reflects a global growing concern in all countries, we propose to analyze such data with an adaptation of the TF-IDF measure. It allows the users to extract the discriminant vocabularies used across time and space. The results are then discussed to show how the specific spatio-temporal anchoring of the extracted terms make it possible to follow the crisis dynamics on different scales of time and space.},

keywords = {COVID-19, EBS, media extraction, Model, population dynamics, Public Health, Twitter},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{,

title = {Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Ile-de-France and possible exit strategies},

author = {Laura Di Domenico and Chiara E. Sabbatini and Giulia Pullano and Daniel Lévy-Bruhl and Vittoria Colizza},

url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251708v2},

doi = { 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-10},

urldate = {2021-03-10},

journal = {medRxiv},

number = {2},

publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},

abstract = {Facing B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a 2-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalizations to plateau, by decreasing transmission of the historical strain while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalizations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.},

keywords = {COVID-19, epidemiology, Europe, Public Health},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Manica2021.01.10.21249532,

title = {Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy},

author = {Mattia Manica and Giorgio Guzzetta and Flavia Riccardo and Antonio Valenti and Piero Poletti and Valentina Marziano and Filippo Trentini and Xanthi Andrianou and Alberto Mateo Urdiales and Martina Manso and Massimo Fabiani and Maria Fenicia Vescio and Matteo Spuri and Daniele Petrone and Antonino Bella and Sergio Iavicoli and Marco Ajelli and Silvio Brusaferro and Patrizio Pezzotti and Stefano Merler},

url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2021/02/24/2021.01.10.21249532},

doi = {10.1101/2021.01.10.21249532},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {medRxiv},

publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},

abstract = {To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) and imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. The individualstextquoteright attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number Rt decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.99, 0.89 and 0.77 in the yellow, orange and red tier, respectively. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 37% of the hospitalizations between November 5 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases. Competing Interest Statement: M.A. has received research funding from Seqirus. The funding is not related to COVID-19. All other authors declare no competing interest. Funding StatementM.M., G.G., V.M., P. Poletti, F.T., and S.M. acknowledge funding from EU Grant 874850 MOOD (cataloged as MOOD 000). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funderAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No IRB was required for this analysis. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.},

keywords = {COVID-19, Italy, measures, Public Health, surveillance},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10.1093/aje/kwab252,

title = {The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients},

author = {Filippo Trentini and Valentina Marziano and Giorgio Guzzetta and Marcello Tirani and Danilo Cereda and Piero Poletti and Raffaella Piccarreta and Antonio Barone and Giuseppe Preziosi and Fabio Arduini and Petra Giulia Della Valle and Alberto Zanella and Francesca Grosso and Gabriele Castillo and Ambra Castrofino and Giacomo Grasselli and Alessia Melegaro and Alessandra Piatti and Aida Andreassi and Maria Gramegna and Marco Ajelli and Stefano Merler},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwab252},

doi = {10.1093/aje/kwab252},

issn = {0002-9262},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

urldate = {2021-01-01},

journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},

abstract = {During the spring of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive care resources in Lombardy, Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, 2020, we evaluated variations in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality over three periods: the early phase (February 20-March 13), the period of highest pressure on healthcare (March 14-April 25, when COVID-19 patients exceeded the ICU pre-pandemic bed capacity), and the declining phase (April 26-July 12).Compared to the early phase, patients above 70 years of age were admitted less often to an ICU during highest pressure on healthcare (odds ratio OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.41-0.54) with longer delays (incidence rate ratio IRR 1.82, 95%CI: 1.52-2.18), and lower chances of death in ICU (OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.34-0.64). Patients under 56 years of age reported more limited changes in the probability (OR 0.65, 95%CI: 0.56-0.76) and delay to ICU admission (IRR 1.16, 95%CI: 0.95-1.42) and an increased mortality (OR 1.43, 95%CI: 1.00-2.07). In the declining phase, all quantities decreased for all age groups.These patterns may suggest that limited healthcare resources during the peak epidemic phase in Lombardy forced a shift in ICU admission criteria to prioritize patients with higher chances of survival.},

note = {kwab252},

keywords = {big data, COVID-19, epidemiology, ICU, Italy, Public Health},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{guzzetta2020potential,

title = {Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020},

author = {Giorgio Guzzetta and Piero Poletti and Marco Ajelli and Filippo Trentini and Valentina Marziano and Danilo Cereda and Marcello Tirani and Giulio Diurno and Annalisa Bodina and Antonio Barone and others},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Eurosurveillance},

volume = {25},

number = {12},

pages = {2000293},

publisher = {European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control},

abstract = {Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.},

keywords = {COVID-19, Italy, Model, Public Health, transmission},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}