MOOD project is at the forefront of European research of infectious disease surveillance and modelling from a data science perspective, investigating the impact of global warming on disease outbreaks, and proposing innovations for building of One Health systems across Europe and the world.
In the table below are listed all MOOD publications. Use the filter to select the most relevant articles.
10.
Mencattelli, Giulia; Silverj, Andrea; Iapaolo, Federica; Ippoliti, Carla; Teodori, Liana; Di Gennaro, Annapia; Curini, Valentina; Candeloro, Luca; Conte, Annamaria; Polci, Andrea; Morelli, Daniela; Perrotta, Maria Gabriella; Marini, Giovanni; Rosà, Roberto; Monaco, Federica; Segata, Nicola; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rota-Stabelli, Omar; Savini, Giovanni; Group, West Nile Working
Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy Journal Article
In: Viruses, vol. 15, no. 35, 2022, ISSN: 1999-4915.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: early-warning, epidemiology, evolution, Italy, West Nile virus lineage 2
@article{nokey,
title = {Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy},
author = {Mencattelli, Giulia and Silverj, Andrea and Iapaolo, Federica and Ippoliti, Carla and Teodori, Liana and Di Gennaro, Annapia and Curini, Valentina and Candeloro, Luca and Conte, Annamaria and Polci, Andrea and Morelli, Daniela and Perrotta, Maria Gabriella and Marini, Giovanni and Rosà, Roberto and Monaco, Federica and Segata, Nicola and Rizzoli, Annapaola and Rota-Stabelli, Omar and Savini, Giovanni and West Nile Working Group},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/1/35},
doi = {10.3390/v15010035},
issn = {1999-4915},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-12-22},
journal = {Viruses},
volume = {15},
number = {35},
abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.},
keywords = {early-warning, epidemiology, evolution, Italy, West Nile virus lineage 2},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.
9.
Manica, Mattia; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Valenti, Antonio; Poletti, Piero; Marziano, Valentina; Trentini, Filippo; Andrianou, Xanthi; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Manso, Martina; Fabiani, Massimo; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; Spuri, Matteo; Petrone, Daniele; Bella, Antonino; Iavicoli, Sergio; Ajelli, Marco; Brusaferro, Silvio; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Merler, Stefano
Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 4570, 2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: COVID-19, Italy, measures, Public Health, surveillance
@article{Manica2021.01.10.21249532,
title = {Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy},
author = {Mattia Manica and Giorgio Guzzetta and Flavia Riccardo and Antonio Valenti and Piero Poletti and Valentina Marziano and Filippo Trentini and Xanthi Andrianou and Alberto Mateo Urdiales and Martina Manso and Massimo Fabiani and Maria Fenicia Vescio and Matteo Spuri and Daniele Petrone and Antonino Bella and Sergio Iavicoli and Marco Ajelli and Silvio Brusaferro and Patrizio Pezzotti and Stefano Merler},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2021/02/24/2021.01.10.21249532},
doi = {10.1101/2021.01.10.21249532 },
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Nature Communications},
volume = {12},
number = {4570},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},
abstract = {To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) and imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. The individualstextquoteright attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number Rt decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.99, 0.89 and 0.77 in the yellow, orange and red tier, respectively. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 37% of the hospitalizations between November 5 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases. Competing Interest Statement: M.A. has received research funding from Seqirus. The funding is not related to COVID-19. All other authors declare no competing interest. Funding StatementM.M., G.G., V.M., P. Poletti, F.T., and S.M. acknowledge funding from EU Grant 874850 MOOD (cataloged as MOOD 000). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funderAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No IRB was required for this analysis. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.},
keywords = {COVID-19, Italy, measures, Public Health, surveillance},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) and imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. The individualstextquoteright attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number Rt decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.99, 0.89 and 0.77 in the yellow, orange and red tier, respectively. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 37% of the hospitalizations between November 5 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases. Competing Interest Statement: M.A. has received research funding from Seqirus. The funding is not related to COVID-19. All other authors declare no competing interest. Funding StatementM.M., G.G., V.M., P. Poletti, F.T., and S.M. acknowledge funding from EU Grant 874850 MOOD (cataloged as MOOD 000). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funderAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No IRB was required for this analysis. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
8.
Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Sabatino, Giuliana; Marziano, Valentina; Castrofino, Ambra; Grosso, Francesca; Castillo, Gabriele Del; others,
In: JAMA network open, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. e211085–e211085, 2021.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Contact tracing, COVID-19, Italy
@article{poletti2021association,
title = {Association of age with likelihood of developing symptoms and critical disease among close contacts exposed to patients with confirmed sars-cov-2 infection in italy},
author = {Piero Poletti and Marcello Tirani and Danilo Cereda and Filippo Trentini and Giorgio Guzzetta and Giuliana Sabatino and Valentina Marziano and Ambra Castrofino and Francesca Grosso and Gabriele Del Castillo and others},
doi = {doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.1085},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {JAMA network open},
volume = {4},
number = {3},
pages = {e211085--e211085},
publisher = {American Medical Association},
keywords = {Contact tracing, COVID-19, Italy},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
7.
Marini, Giovanni; Manica, Mattia; Delucchi, Luca; Pugliese, Andrea; Ros`a, Roberto
Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in Europe Journal Article
In: Acta Tropica, vol. 215, pp. 105796, 2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Animal disease surveillance, Climate, Environmental change, Italy, West Nile Virus
@article{marini2021spring,
title = {Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in Europe},
author = {Giovanni Marini and Mattia Manica and Luca Delucchi and Andrea Pugliese and Roberto Ros`a},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105796},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Acta Tropica},
volume = {215},
pages = {105796},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {West Nile Virus (WNV) is now endemic in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases every year, with a high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Previous studies have suggested that spring temperature might play a key role at shaping WNV transmission. Specifically, warmer temperatures in April-May might amplify WNV circulation, thus increasing the risk for human transmission later in the year. To test this hypothesis, we collated publicly available data on the number of human infections recorded in Europe between 2011 and 2019. We then applied generalized linear models to quantify the relationship between human cases and spring temperature, considering both average conditions (over years 2003-2010) and deviations from the average for subsequent years (2011-2019). We found a significant positive association both spatial (average conditions) and temporal (deviations). The former indicates that WNV circulation is higher in usually warmer regions while the latter implies a predictive value of spring conditions over the coming season. We also found a positive association with WNV detection during the previous year, which can be interpreted as an indication of the reliability of the surveillance system but also of WNV overwintering capacity. Weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to strengthen in advance ongoing surveillance and prevention strategies.},
keywords = {Animal disease surveillance, Climate, Environmental change, Italy, West Nile Virus},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
West Nile Virus (WNV) is now endemic in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases every year, with a high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Previous studies have suggested that spring temperature might play a key role at shaping WNV transmission. Specifically, warmer temperatures in April-May might amplify WNV circulation, thus increasing the risk for human transmission later in the year. To test this hypothesis, we collated publicly available data on the number of human infections recorded in Europe between 2011 and 2019. We then applied generalized linear models to quantify the relationship between human cases and spring temperature, considering both average conditions (over years 2003-2010) and deviations from the average for subsequent years (2011-2019). We found a significant positive association both spatial (average conditions) and temporal (deviations). The former indicates that WNV circulation is higher in usually warmer regions while the latter implies a predictive value of spring conditions over the coming season. We also found a positive association with WNV detection during the previous year, which can be interpreted as an indication of the reliability of the surveillance system but also of WNV overwintering capacity. Weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to strengthen in advance ongoing surveillance and prevention strategies.
6.
Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Poletti, Piero; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Barone, Antonio; Preziosi, Giuseppe; Arduini, Fabio; Valle, Petra Giulia Della; Zanella, Alberto; Grosso, Francesca; Castillo, Gabriele; Castrofino, Ambra; Grasselli, Giacomo; Melegaro, Alessia; Piatti, Alessandra; Andreassi, Aida; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano
In: American Journal of Epidemiology, 2021, ISSN: 0002-9262, (kwab252).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: big data, COVID-19, epidemiology, ICU, Italy, Public Health
@article{10.1093/aje/kwab252,
title = {The pressure on healthcare system and intensive care utilization during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lombardy region: a retrospective observational study on 43,538 hospitalized patients},
author = {Filippo Trentini and Valentina Marziano and Giorgio Guzzetta and Marcello Tirani and Danilo Cereda and Piero Poletti and Raffaella Piccarreta and Antonio Barone and Giuseppe Preziosi and Fabio Arduini and Petra Giulia Della Valle and Alberto Zanella and Francesca Grosso and Gabriele Castillo and Ambra Castrofino and Giacomo Grasselli and Alessia Melegaro and Alessandra Piatti and Aida Andreassi and Maria Gramegna and Marco Ajelli and Stefano Merler},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwab252},
doi = {10.1093/aje/kwab252},
issn = {0002-9262},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
abstract = {During the spring of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive care resources in Lombardy, Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, 2020, we evaluated variations in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality over three periods: the early phase (February 20-March 13), the period of highest pressure on healthcare (March 14-April 25, when COVID-19 patients exceeded the ICU pre-pandemic bed capacity), and the declining phase (April 26-July 12).Compared to the early phase, patients above 70 years of age were admitted less often to an ICU during highest pressure on healthcare (odds ratio OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.41-0.54) with longer delays (incidence rate ratio IRR 1.82, 95%CI: 1.52-2.18), and lower chances of death in ICU (OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.34-0.64). Patients under 56 years of age reported more limited changes in the probability (OR 0.65, 95%CI: 0.56-0.76) and delay to ICU admission (IRR 1.16, 95%CI: 0.95-1.42) and an increased mortality (OR 1.43, 95%CI: 1.00-2.07). In the declining phase, all quantities decreased for all age groups.These patterns may suggest that limited healthcare resources during the peak epidemic phase in Lombardy forced a shift in ICU admission criteria to prioritize patients with higher chances of survival.},
note = {kwab252},
keywords = {big data, COVID-19, epidemiology, ICU, Italy, Public Health},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
During the spring of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive care resources in Lombardy, Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, 2020, we evaluated variations in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality over three periods: the early phase (February 20-March 13), the period of highest pressure on healthcare (March 14-April 25, when COVID-19 patients exceeded the ICU pre-pandemic bed capacity), and the declining phase (April 26-July 12).Compared to the early phase, patients above 70 years of age were admitted less often to an ICU during highest pressure on healthcare (odds ratio OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.41-0.54) with longer delays (incidence rate ratio IRR 1.82, 95%CI: 1.52-2.18), and lower chances of death in ICU (OR 0.47, 95%CI: 0.34-0.64). Patients under 56 years of age reported more limited changes in the probability (OR 0.65, 95%CI: 0.56-0.76) and delay to ICU admission (IRR 1.16, 95%CI: 0.95-1.42) and an increased mortality (OR 1.43, 95%CI: 1.00-2.07). In the declining phase, all quantities decreased for all age groups.These patterns may suggest that limited healthcare resources during the peak epidemic phase in Lombardy forced a shift in ICU admission criteria to prioritize patients with higher chances of survival.
5.
Mateo-Urdiales, Alberto; Alegiani, Stefania Spila; Fabiani, Massimo; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Filia, Antonietta; Massari, Marco; Riccardo, Flavia; Tallon, Marco; Proietti, Valeria; Manso, Martina Del; Puopolo, Maria; Spuri, Matteo; Morciano, Cristina; D’Ancona, Fortunato (Paolo); Cas, Roberto Da; Battilomo, Serena; Bella, Antonino; Menniti-Ippolito, Francesca; group,; registry,
In: Eurosurveillance, vol. 26, no. 25, 2021.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Contact tracing, COVID-19, Italy, vaccine
@article{:/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.25.2100507,
title = {Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent hospital admission and death at different time intervals since first dose of COVID-19 vaccine administration, Italy, 27 December 2020 to mid-April 2021},
author = {Alberto Mateo-Urdiales and Stefania Spila Alegiani and Massimo Fabiani and Patrizio Pezzotti and Antonietta Filia and Marco Massari and Flavia Riccardo and Marco Tallon and Valeria Proietti and Martina Del Manso and Maria Puopolo and Matteo Spuri and Cristina Morciano and Fortunato (Paolo) D’Ancona and Roberto Da Cas and Serena Battilomo and Antonino Bella and Francesca Menniti-Ippolito and group and registry},
url = {https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.25.2100507},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.25.2100507},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Eurosurveillance},
volume = {26},
number = {25},
keywords = {Contact tracing, COVID-19, Italy, vaccine},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
4.
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Bella, Antonino; Andrianou, Xanthi; Manso, Martina Del; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; Boros, Stefano; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; Piccioli, Andrea; Brusaferro, Silvio; Rezza, Giovanni; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Group, COVID-19 Working
Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy Bachelor Thesis
2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: COVID-19, Italy, lock-down, measures
@bachelorthesis{nokey,
title = {Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy},
author = {Giorgio Guzzetta and Flavia Riccardo and Valentina Marziano and Piero Poletti and Filippo Trentini and Antonino Bella and Xanthi Andrianou and Martina Del Manso and Massimo Fabiani and Stefania Bellino and Stefano Boros and Alberto Mateo Urdiales and Maria Fenicia Vescio and Andrea Piccioli and Silvio Brusaferro and Giovanni Rezza and Patrizio Pezzotti and Marco Ajelli and Stefano Merler and COVID-19 Working Group},
doi = {10.3201/eid2701.202114},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Emerging Infectious Diseases},
volume = {27},
number = {1},
abstract = {On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.},
keywords = {COVID-19, Italy, lock-down, measures},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {bachelorthesis}
}
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.
3.
Marini, Giovanni; Manica, Mattia; Arnoldi, Daniele; Inama, Enrico; Ros`a, Roberto; Rizzoli, Annapaola
Influence of temperature on the life-cycle dynamics of Aedes albopictus population established at temperate latitudes: A laboratory experiment Journal Article
In: Insects, vol. 11, no. 11, pp. 808, 2020.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Animal disease surveillance, invasive species, Italy, mosquito bionomics, mosquito dynamics, vector
@article{marini2020influence,
title = {Influence of temperature on the life-cycle dynamics of Aedes albopictus population established at temperate latitudes: A laboratory experiment},
author = {Giovanni Marini and Mattia Manica and Daniele Arnoldi and Enrico Inama and Roberto Ros`a and Annapaola Rizzoli},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/insects11110808},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
urldate = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Insects},
volume = {11},
number = {11},
pages = {808},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
abstract = {The mosquito species Aedes albopictus has successfully colonized many areas at temperate latitudes, representing a major public health concern. As mosquito bionomics is critically affected by temperature, we experimentally investigated the influence of different constant rearing temperatures (10, 15, 25, and 30 °C) on the survival rates, fecundity, and developmental times of different life stages of Ae. albopictus using a laboratory colony established from specimens collected in northern Italy. We compared our results with previously published data obtained with subtropical populations. We found that temperate Ae. albopictus immature stages are better adapted to colder temperatures: temperate larvae were able to develop even at 10 °C and at 15 °C, larval survivorship was comparable to the one observed at warmer conditions. Nonetheless, at these lower temperatures, we did not observe any blood-feeding activity. Adult longevity and fecundity were substantially greater at 25 °C with respect to the other tested temperatures. Our findings highlight the ability of Ae. albopictus to quickly adapt to colder environments and provide new important insights on the bionomics of this species at temperate latitudes.},
keywords = {Animal disease surveillance, invasive species, Italy, mosquito bionomics, mosquito dynamics, vector},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The mosquito species Aedes albopictus has successfully colonized many areas at temperate latitudes, representing a major public health concern. As mosquito bionomics is critically affected by temperature, we experimentally investigated the influence of different constant rearing temperatures (10, 15, 25, and 30 °C) on the survival rates, fecundity, and developmental times of different life stages of Ae. albopictus using a laboratory colony established from specimens collected in northern Italy. We compared our results with previously published data obtained with subtropical populations. We found that temperate Ae. albopictus immature stages are better adapted to colder temperatures: temperate larvae were able to develop even at 10 °C and at 15 °C, larval survivorship was comparable to the one observed at warmer conditions. Nonetheless, at these lower temperatures, we did not observe any blood-feeding activity. Adult longevity and fecundity were substantially greater at 25 °C with respect to the other tested temperatures. Our findings highlight the ability of Ae. albopictus to quickly adapt to colder environments and provide new important insights on the bionomics of this species at temperate latitudes.
2.
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Ajelli, Marco; Trentini, Filippo; Marziano, Valentina; Cereda, Danilo; Tirani, Marcello; Diurno, Giulio; Bodina, Annalisa; Barone, Antonio; others,
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020 Journal Article
In: Eurosurveillance, vol. 25, no. 12, pp. 2000293, 2020.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: COVID-19, Italy, Model, Public Health, transmission
@article{guzzetta2020potential,
title = {Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020},
author = {Giorgio Guzzetta and Piero Poletti and Marco Ajelli and Filippo Trentini and Valentina Marziano and Danilo Cereda and Marcello Tirani and Giulio Diurno and Annalisa Bodina and Antonio Barone and others},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
urldate = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Eurosurveillance},
volume = {25},
number = {12},
pages = {2000293},
publisher = {European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control},
abstract = {Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.},
keywords = {COVID-19, Italy, Model, Public Health, transmission},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
1.
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Riccardo, Flavia; Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Trentini, Filippo; Bella, Antonino; Andrianou, Xanthi; Manso, Martina Del; Fabiani, Massimo; Bellino, Stefania; others,
The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy Journal Article
In: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 267-270, 2020.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: COVID-19, epidemiology, Italy, lock-down, reproduction number, transmission, zoonoses
@article{guzzetta2020impact,
title = {The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy},
author = {Giorgio Guzzetta and Flavia Riccardo and Valentina Marziano and Piero Poletti and Filippo Trentini and Antonino Bella and Xanthi Andrianou and Martina Del Manso and Massimo Fabiani and Stefania Bellino and others},
url = {https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/1/20-2114_article},
doi = {10.3201/eid2701.202114},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
urldate = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention},
volume = {27},
number = {1},
pages = {267-270},
abstract = {On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.},
keywords = {COVID-19, epidemiology, Italy, lock-down, reproduction number, transmission, zoonoses},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.